Press Release - 8th April 2008

Britain should be aware of Europe's worsening demographics 

Demographic projections, especially projections of working age populations, are useful indicators of the economic potential of individual regions and countries.  If new UN estimates are proved correct and the EU's demographics worsen significantly, this will be a factor in the EU's shrinking share of world GDP.  

According to the UN's latest projections*, of the 2 billion world increase in people of working age, over 800 million will be accounted for by Africa and over 1 billion by Asia.  India alone is predicted to see an increase of nearly 500 million in the half century from 2000 to 2050 and it's share of world GDP is forecast to increase from 3% in 1980 to 8% by 2015.

In contrast, Europe's working age population demographics are set to significantly worsen by 2050. Whilst the UK, France and Ireland show positive growth, most of the other EU Member States show contractions.  The EU's working age population as a whole is projected by the UN to decrease from 324 million in 2000 to 272 million in 2050 - a fall of 52 million or 16%. The working age populations of Eastern European countries, in particular, are expected to fall significantly. Romania and Bulgaria, for instance, are predicted to show falls of around 40% during this period

Ruth Lea said:

"With the EU's demographic expectations as poor as these, it is clear that the UK must look beyond the EU - and must feel unfettered to do so - if it is to have a dynamic and positive future.  The ‘action', quite simply, will be elsewhere."

*UN, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, World Population Prospects, the 2006 revision, medium variant.