Mail on Sunday, 26th August 2007

There are two new Prime Ministers enjoying their honeymoons in the polls; there are two demands for a constitutional referendum; there are two great issues on which Gordon Brown is on the defensive: Europe and Scotland. Whenever the next General Election is called, Europe and Scotland will be at the heart of debate.

The English have not yet fully realised that Alex Salmond is a historic Scottish leader.

We could scarcely be blamed for that, since his Scottish opponents almost all underestimated him until he won May's Scottish elections, by the narrowest of margins, and became the First Minister of Scotland. That was the worst defeat suffered by Labour in Scotland for 50 years.

I was not surprised. In 2001, I made a tour of the General Election campaign in Scotland. I visited Sir Malcolm Rifkind in Edinburgh, Sir Menzies Campbell in Fife, Tam Dalyell at his home he was confined to his study by a bad leg and Salmond campaigning in Inverness.

Friends have described to me the experience of riding the campaign bus when Bill Clinton was first running for President in 1992. Clinton knew how to talk to the American people. Salmond knows how to talk to Scotland. He is formidable as an advocate; he is more than formidable as an adversary.

Salmond's first aim was to convince the Scottish electorate that he and his party could run an effective government for Scotland. The Scottish National Party administration followed a lacklustre Labour coalition with the Liberal Democrats. The SNP has been much more impressive.
The new Scottish First Minister has recently published a White Paper proposing a referendum. The SNP doesn't have a majority in the Scottish Parliament, so it cannot hold a referendum until it has built up majority support. Nevertheless, the proposal is relevant and persuasive.

Salmond does not offer a simple choice between the existing state of devolution and outright independence. The White Paper provides a third possible choice for Scottish people, which has been described as 'devolution-plus'. That would give wider powers to the Scottish Parliament.
The opinion polls suggest only a minority of Scottish voters want full independence, but that a majority would vote for devolution-plus. Sooner or later, that is likely to be what Scotland will insist on having.

Gordon Brown is determined that the British should not have a choice on Europe. Under the 2005 Labour Party Manifesto, on which he was elected, Labour is committed to a United Kingdom referendum on the European Constitution. Brown pretends that the 'Reform Treaty', which contains about 96 per cent of the same material as the original constitution, is not a constitution. That is so lame an excuse that it will undermine trust in his whole administration.

The political Press sees that. The trade unions see that. The British people will see it. Brown is not a knockabout populist like London Mayor Ken Livingstone; he is a man of conscience. He cannot afford to break a key manifesto commitment on the basis of such an argument. It would prove to be a disaster for his party. And for himself.

Brown and Salmond have had to face similar issues. In Scotland, Salmond had made a commitment to introduce a referendum on independence. After the Election, he found he was leading a minority government Brown's Government has a comfortable majority. In Scotland, the polls showed that there was a majority against independence, though that is the policy of the SNP. Salmond introduced his middleway-proposal of devolution-plus, for which there is a majority of public support.

The Labour Party had fought the 2005 Election on its commitment to hold a referendum before ratifying the European Union Constitutional Treaty. The polls showed the UK electorate would vote against ratification.

Brown then decided to go back on his commitment as his only way out.

The Prime Minister was not willing to face a 'No' vote; he knew he could not hope to get a 'Yes' vote; he resorted to a blatant subterfuge to avoid the referendum to which all three parties had committed themselves in 2005. In this respect, the Lib Dems are just as bad as Labour only the Tories have remained loyal to their manifesto promise.

Recent opinion polls give us the present state of British opinion on Europe. Only a minority of British voters want to leave the EU, but a large majority demand a referendum on the new treaty. In last Monday's Daily Mail there was an ICM poll that gave these figures: 82 per cent of voters want a referendum; only 13 per cent prefer ratification by Parliament. If a referendum were held, 44 per cent would vote 'No' and 20 per cent would vote 'Yes'.

These are conclusive figures; if Brown tries to ratify without a referendum, he will be taking a big political risk, and an improper one. The new treaty transfers more power to the EU and only six per cent support that, while 47 per cent want to bring powers back to the United Kingdom.

Both Brown and Salmond will need to reconsider their policies on Europe. For Brown, Scotland is equally difficult. After the Labour defeat in the Scottish elections, he may have an understandable fear that further devolution would undermine Labour dominance of Scottish politics. Yet the Scottish people do want further devolution. They would support that in a referendum. If Labour tries to hold on to powers the Scottish people regard as belonging to them, it could lose Scotland permanently.

Europe is equally difficult for both men.

Brown has virtually committed himself to ratifying the treaty without a referendum, a policy supported by only a small minority of voters. Yet Salmond must be equally worried about Europe. He wants to devolve legislative powers from London, but many of these powers have already been given to Brussels.

A majority of English laws are now made in Brussels, not at Westminster. Salmond needs to bring his European policy into line with his policy for Scotland. At present they are on a collision course.

There is a new think-tank in London, Global Vision, which is trying to resolve the European problem. In the end, nations will insist on what they regard as their rights.

Scotland wants to retain a relationship with Britain, but is determined to widen the existing devolution. Britain wants to maintain a real relationship with the EU, but it is determined to have a referendum. Most British people want to reclaim legislative powers from Europe.

Both objectives can best be achieved by friendly negotiations, but they depend on popular support. Referendums are the only way to prove that the support exists.