Global Vision/ICM EU Relationship Survey

Global Vision/ICM poll on British attitudes to renegotiating Britain's relationship with the EU

In March 2008 Global Vision commissioned an ICM poll on the British public's attitudes to renegotiating a new, looser relationship with the EU. In addition to the overall totals, the data were also tabulated according to voting intentions: Conservative, Labour, LibDem or "other". (See the technical notes, below, for the data on voting intentions.)

As in Global Vision's previous polling, when people were asked their ideal relationship with Europe, the option of choice was having a looser relationship with the EU based on trade and cooperation whilst opting out of political and economic union. 41% preferred this option, compared with 27% wishing to stay a full EU member and 26% wishing to withdraw altogether. 48% of Conservative supporters chose this option compared with 38% of Labour supporters, 44% of LibDems and 44% of "other".  (Question 1.)

When those favouring a "looser relationship" were asked whether their option of choice would ever be achieved, 36% thought there was a "good chance" whilst 51% replied there was a "slim chance". A mere 11% said there was "no chance at all". The reasons for thinking there was either a "slim chance" or "no chance at all" (taken together) included, firstly, that no British Government would ever enter into the required negotiations (35%) and, secondly, that other EU countries would never agree to a new relationship for the UK (31%). (Questions 2(a) and 3.)

When those favouring withdrawal were asked whether this would ever be achieved, only 11% thought there was a "good chance". 41% replied there was a "slim chance" and 46% said there was "no chance at all". (Question 2(b).)

Global Vision asked all the respondents how they would vote in a referendum, if a British Government renegotiated a new relationship with the EU based on trade and cooperation and put this to the electorate. A comfortable majority (64%) said they would favour the new relationship, whilst 26% said they would not. (Question 4.)

If the Conservative party committed to renegotiating Britain's relationship with the EU to a looser one based on trade and cooperation, this would be electorally advantageous to the Conservatives. 25% of Labour-leaning and 27% of LibDem-leaning voters would be "more likely" to vote Conservative (and 33% of "other" voters), whilst only 11% of Conservative-leaning voters would be "less likely" to vote Conservative. (Question 5.)

Respondents were asked if they thought the possible threat by the rest of the EU to force the UK to leave altogether was a valid reason for not entering into negotiations about Britain's relationship with the EU, 37% thought this was a valid reason, whilst 57% thought not. (Question 6.)

They were also asked if Britain sought to negotiate a new, looser relationship with the EU but the rest of the EU refused to consider this, what should happen then. 57% said Britain should leave the EU under these circumstances, whilst only 33% said Britain should stay in. (Question 7.)

Results

Question 1: If the UK could have the ideal relationship with Europe, which of the following would you yourself prefer? % responses

Question 2 (a) to those favouring a looser relationship in Q1: What chance do you personally think Britain has of ever achieving a relationship like this (i.e. a looser relationship)?

Question 2 (b) to those favouring withdrawal in Q1: What chance do you personally think Britain has of ever achieving a relationship like this (i.e. withdrawal)?

Question 3 to those answering slim chance/no chance to Q2: And why do you think this is?

Question 4 (to all): If a future British Government renegotiated Britain's relationship with the EU to a new one based on trade and cooperation, and then called a referendum on this new relationship, how would you vote in the referendum?

Question 5 (to all): If the Conservative party committed that, if elected, it would enter into negotiations with the EU to change the UK's relationship to a new one based on trade and cooperation, would this make you more or less likely to vote Conservative?

Question 6 (to all): Some people are worried that if we tried to negotiate a looser relationship for the UK that the rest of the EU would force us to leave. Do you think this is a valid reason for keeping our relationship as it is?

Question 7 (to all): If a future government tried to negotiate a new relationship for the UK based on trade and cooperation relationship and the rest of Europe refused, do you think at that point we should leave the EU, or stay in the EU whatever the form?

Download the full ICM poll

Technical notes

ICM Research interviewed a random sample of 1,010 adults aged 18+ by telephone on 26-27^th March 2008. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to the profile of all adults. ICM is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Further information at http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/

Voting intention figures

RL, May 2008